Over the past three years, the blood meal market has had one guaranteed constant — volatility. As a cash-traded commodity with a supply chain stretching from coast to coast, blood meal faces logistical hurdles in getting from rendering plant to the ration. Rapid price swings are driven by fluctuating supply and variability in demand, and for dairy producers, understanding these dynamics isn’t just helpful, it’s essential for managing feed costs while hitting milk production and component goals.
More volatility is likely ahead
Conditions in domestic cattle supply in the last half of 2025 are exhibiting several areas of concern. Reports show the smallest herd size since 1951, record high comprehensive cutout values and indications of meat packers operating with margins that are solidly in the red.
It’s a continuation of a trend. In 2024, cattle slaughter numbers were rather lackluster in terms of kill volume, with 2025 expected to trail the year previous by 7% year-over-year. This represents a sizeable number of animals kept off the kill floor, and a significant change in the volume of available ruminant blood meal over the course of the year. Furthermore, the outlook for a sizeable domestic herd expansion is not positive: cattle feeders are seeing incredible margins, calves are selling at sky-high values, and ultimately, the incentive to retain heifers for breeding and herd expansion is not present.
In the porcine market, hog supply is less concerning. The U.S. hog herd is smaller than it was three years ago, but the rate of decline is less rapid than what we’ve seen in cattle, and when compared to 2024, the fluctuations in supply feel aligned with expectations. Unlike the cattle market, producers have maintained a holding pattern on sow retention, waiting to see what shakes out with tariffs, feed costs, and most importantly, profit margins. The packers have maintained near-breakeven margins throughout most of the year, enough to keep slaughter through the end of the year at a comfortable enough pace.
With that said, high-quality porcine blood meal has still found points of tightness throughout the year as unplanned production interruptions cause short-term chaos in the market. Due to a smaller domestic cattle herd, reduced packer margins and slowed kill rates, the blood market is always one winter storm or short-term plant shutdown away from a price hike.
Take the guesswork out of planning
You can’t control the market – but you can control your risk. So what can producers do to prepare? There are reliable options for diversifying your supply chain and insulating your business from volatility. Feeding an amino acid blend, like Papillon Agricultural Company’s Excelene™, is a tried-and-true feed technology that smooths the input cost trendline and delivers the nutrition your dairy requires, week in and week out. Not only can Excelene take the guesswork out of timing the straight blood meal market, but your nutritionist can formulate a customized blend that can be used to preferentially drive milk protein, fat and yield.
Talk with your nutritionist or contact your Papillon rep to build a custom amino acid blend that locks in stability and optimal feed conversion.
